"If I were to predict the direction of the market movement correctly for five successive weeks, you might think that I knew something you didn’t. Indeed, you might be willing to subscribe to an investment service with that sort of track record. How might one create the illusion of clairvoyance? Select around six thousand names and addresses from the London or NY phone book. Divide the names into two groups. To the first group, send a letter predicting that the market will rise over the coming week. To the second, write predicting a fall in the market. At the end of the week keep the three thousand or so names who were given the correct prediction and discard the others. Divide those names in turn into two groups. To the first, predict a rise in the market and to the second, a fall. Repeat this process for five weeks, at which point there will be around 200 people to whom the following letter could be sent: „You may well have been sceptical when you received our first letter, but by now you will know that we have indeed found the secret of predicting successfully the direction of movement of the stock market. You know that our method really works. To subscribe to our investment service please send $ 5,000 by return.’"
Mervyn King: "The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy".
Mervyn King: "The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy".
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